Two Saturdays remain before the Division II selection show, and the HBCU count in our projected field has not moved. Seven CIAA and SIAC teams make the cut in Super Regions One and Two again this week. Two of the names are different, though.
Johnson C. Smith blocked three kicks and beat Virginia State in overtime, and that win lifted the Golden Bulls from 10th to fifth in Super Region One. Bowie State went the other way. Its loss at Fayetteville State dropped the Bulldogs from seventh to 14th, out of the field.
Central State’s win over Edward Waters reshuffled the top of Super Region Two. The Marauders jumped from fifth to second, and the SIAC still holds the region’s top three seeds: Kentucky State, Central State, and Benedict.
We used the NPI rankings through Oct. 31, released Sunday, and the same approach as last week’s playoff field projections, which break down how NPI selects and brackets the field. Each conference’s current leader gets the projected automatic bid.
Super Region One: Two Automatic Bids From Outside the Top Eight
Slippery Rock is 9-0 and still first in the region with an NPI of 69.179. The Rock did slip from No. 1 to No. 2 nationally, behind Ferris State.
Kutztown took its first Division II loss, and East Stroudsburg passed it for second. Virginia Union moved up to fourth after its 62-0 win over Lincoln, which makes the Panthers the last seeded team in the region.
| Rank | Team | Conference | DII record | NPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slippery Rock | PSAC | 9-0 | 69.179 |
| 2 | East Stroudsburg | PSAC | 7-1 | 63.794 |
| 3 | Kutztown | PSAC | 7-1 | 60.602 |
| 4 | Virginia Union | CIAA | 8-1 | 58.704 |
| 5 | Johnson C. Smith | CIAA | 7-2 | 56.949 |
| 6 | Virginia State | CIAA | 7-1 | 56.374 |
| 7 | California (Pa.) | PSAC | 6-3 | 54.932 |
| 8 | Indiana (Pa.) | PSAC | 6-3 | 54.491 |
| 9 | Bloomsburg | PSAC | 6-2 | 54.466 |
| 10 | Fayetteville State | CIAA | 6-3 | 54.235 |
| 11 | Shepherd | PSAC | 6-3 | 54.110 |
| 12 | West Liberty | MEC | 7-2 | 53.829 |
| 13 | Assumption | NE10 | 6-2 | 53.443 |
| 14 | Bowie State | CIAA | 4-3 | 53.153 |
The Squeeze
Last week, Assumption’s automatic bid knocked one team out of the field. This week, two automatic qualifiers sit outside the top eight.
West Liberty took its second Division II loss and fell from sixth to 12th, but it still leads the MEC at 5-1, a game ahead of Wheeling and Charleston. Assumption is 6-0 in NE10 play and dropped from ninth to 13th despite a 38-10 win over Post.
Both projected champions get in, taking two of the region’s eight spots. That leaves four at-large bids, going to East Stroudsburg, Kutztown, Johnson C. Smith and Virginia State.
The losers are California (Pa.) and Indiana (Pa.). They rank seventh and eighth in the region and still miss the field.
The MEC and NE10 races offer little relief. Every other contender in both leagues ranks outside the region’s top eight, including Franklin Pierce, which is 5-1 in the NE10 and 15th in the region.
First teams out: California (Pa.), Indiana (Pa.), Bloomsburg and Fayetteville State.
Projected First Round
| Seed | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slippery Rock (9-0) | Assumption (6-2) |
| 4 | Virginia Union (8-1) | Johnson C. Smith (7-2) |
| 2 | East Stroudsburg (7-1) | West Liberty (7-2) |
| 3 | Kutztown (7-1) | Virginia State (7-1) |
The NCAA has a rule for this exact situation. When more than one automatic qualifier sits outside the top eight, the lowest-ranked one is paired first with the No. 1 seed. That sends Assumption to Slippery Rock.
Any other automatic qualifier outside the top eight is placed by rank and bracket integrity. We lined West Liberty up with No. 2 East Stroudsburg, the next spot in order.
That leaves Johnson C. Smith and Virginia State for Virginia Union and Kutztown. Virginia Union and Virginia State meet Nov. 7, so the Panthers draw the Golden Bulls instead, which is also the natural No. 4-vs.-No. 5 pairing. Johnson C. Smith’s 2026 schedule does not include Virginia Union, so it would be the first meeting of the season.
The longest trip in the region would be Assumption’s, about 430 miles in a straight line from Worcester, Mass., to Slippery Rock.
In the second round, the Slippery Rock and Assumption winner would meet the Virginia Union and Johnson C. Smith winner. The East Stroudsburg and West Liberty winner would face the Kutztown and Virginia State winner.
Super Region Two: Central State Climbs to No. 2
Kentucky State is still first in the region at 7-1 with an NPI of 61.834, 10th in the nation.
Central State’s 35-28 win over Edward Waters moved the Marauders from fifth to second. Benedict stayed third after shutting out Savannah State 23-0. Edward Waters fell from second to fifth, which drops the Tigers out of the seeded spots.
| Rank | Team | Conference | DII record | NPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky State | SIAC | 7-1 | 61.834 |
| 2 | Central State | SIAC | 6-1 | 61.116 |
| 3 | Benedict | SIAC | 8-1 | 60.965 |
| 4 | Carson-Newman | SAC | 7-1 | 60.072 |
| 5 | Edward Waters | SIAC | 5-2 | 58.772 |
| 6 | North Greenville | Conference Carolinas | 8-1 | 58.263 |
| 7 | Valdosta State | GSC | 5-1 | 56.766 |
| 8 | Newberry | SAC | 5-2 | 55.723 |
| 9 | UNC Pembroke | Conference Carolinas | 6-2 | 54.503 |
| 10 | Tuskegee | SIAC | 5-3 | 54.301 |
| 11 | Mars Hill | SAC | 5-3 | 54.154 |
| 12 | West Alabama | GSC | 5-3 | 53.333 |
Valdosta State Moves In
Valdosta State was 11th in the region a week ago and is now seventh, inside the field. With no Gulf South automatic bid, the Blazers need to stay there on NPI alone.
Mars Hill went the other way, from seventh to 11th. West Alabama, which sat just 0.057 points out of the field last week, fell from ninth to 12th.
The cut line is not nearly as tight as it was. Newberry holds the last spot at 55.723, and No. 9 UNC Pembroke trails by 1.220 points.
All three projected automatic qualifiers rank inside the top eight. Kentucky State, Central State, and Benedict share the SIAC lead at 6-1; Carson-Newman is the SAC’s highest-ranked team, and North Greenville leads Conference Carolinas at 5-1. So the field is simply the top eight in NPI.
The Conference Carolinas Bowl on Nov. 14 is the one race that could change that. UNC Pembroke and Chowan are both 4-1 in league play. A UNC Pembroke title could knock Newberry out, and so could a Chowan title, since the Hawks rank 19th in the region.
First teams out: UNC Pembroke, Tuskegee, Mars Hill and West Alabama.
Projected First Round
| Seed | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky State (7-1) | Newberry (5-2) |
| 4 | Carson-Newman (7-1) | Edward Waters (5-2) |
| 2 | Central State (6-1) | North Greenville (8-1) |
| 3 | Benedict (8-1) | Valdosta State (5-1) |
Straight seed order would send Valdosta State to Central State. That trip is about 610 miles in a straight line from Valdosta, Ga., to Wilberforce, Ohio, past the NCAA’s 600-mile threshold for ground travel, and cutting flights is the first priority when placing unseeded teams.
Swapping Valdosta State and North Greenville solves it. North Greenville’s trip to Wilberforce is about 330 miles, and Valdosta State’s trip to Benedict is about 255. Benedict and Valdosta State have not played each other this season.
The swap also keeps Benedict away from Edward Waters. The Tigers already beat Edward Waters 45-24 in Columbia on Oct. 17.
Kentucky State and Newberry will also meet for the first time this season. In the second round, the Kentucky State-Newberry winner would meet the Carson-Newman-Edward Waters winner. The Central State and North Greenville winner would face the Benedict and Valdosta State winner.
The HBCU Picture
Seven of the 16 projected spots across the two regions still belong to HBCUs:
- Super Region One: Virginia Union, Johnson C. Smith and Virginia State
- Super Region Two: Kentucky State, Central State, Benedict and Edward Waters
Three of the four SIAC teams are seeded, and Virginia Union holds the No. 4 seed in Super Region One. If the seeds hold, Kentucky State could see Edward Waters again in the second round. The Thorobreds’ only Division II loss came at Edward Waters, 61-42, on Oct. 3.
Fayetteville State and Tuskegee are the closest HBCUs on the outside, both 10th in their regions. Fayetteville State’s win over Bowie State lifted the Broncos from 19th to 10th in Super Region One. Tuskegee sits 1.422 points behind Newberry for the last spot in Super Region Two.
The CIAA and SIAC Division II football dashboard tracks every team’s NPI, schedule, and stats.
What the Conference Races Mean
Virginia Union is 7-0 in CIAA play, with Virginia State and Johnson C. Smith a game back at 6-1 and Fayetteville State at 5-2. Virginia Union visits Virginia State on Nov. 7.
Virginia Union, Virginia State and Johnson C. Smith are all in the projected field, so a CIAA title for any of them would not change the selections. A Fayetteville State title could. The Broncos would take a bid from outside the top eight, and Virginia State, the last at-large team in, could be the one squeezed out.
The SIAC is tied at 6-1 among Kentucky State, Central State, and Benedict. Central State visits Benedict on Nov. 7, and the SIAC Championship is Nov. 14. All three are in the field, no matter who wins.
What Could Change It
NPI updates again before the selection show on Nov. 15. These are the games that could move this bracket the most:
- Nov. 7, Virginia Union at Virginia State: The CIAA lead and the No. 4 seed in Super Region One
- Nov. 7, Central State at Benedict: The SIAC title race and two of the top three seeds in Super Region Two
- Nov. 7, Newberry at Carson-Newman: Newberry’s hold on the last spot in Super Region Two
- Nov. 7, North Greenville at Valdosta State: Two teams in the projected field, and Valdosta State’s at-large hopes
- Nov. 13 and 14, CIAA Championship Weekend in Durham, N.C.: The CIAA automatic bid
- Nov. 14, SIAC Championship: The SIAC automatic bid
- Nov. 14, PSAC Championship at Slippery Rock: The PSAC automatic bid
- Nov. 14, Conference Carolinas Bowl: The Conference Carolinas automatic bid and Newberry’s spot
- Nov. 14, Valdosta State at Delta State: Valdosta State’s last chance to protect its at-large spot
The selection show airs Nov. 15 on NCAA.com, and the first round kicks off Nov. 21. The national championship is Dec. 19 in McKinney, Texas.
