Three Saturdays remain in the Division II regular season, and for the first time, nobody has to guess how the NCAA will pick the playoff field. The NCAA Power Index decides it. No committee debate or regional advisory panel, just a formula the NCAA publishes every week.
That makes projections more concrete than ever. We took the latest NPI rankings, released Sunday, ran them through the NCAA’s selection and bracketing rules, and built the field for Super Regions One and Two as if the season ended Saturday.
The HBCU story jumps off the page. Seven of the 16 spots go to CIAA and SIAC schools: Virginia State, Virginia Union and Bowie State in Super Region One, plus Kentucky State, Edward Waters, Benedict and Central State in Super Region Two.
The SIAC would also hold the top three seeds in Super Region Two, with Kentucky State at No. 1, Edward Waters at No. 2 and Benedict at No. 3. Here is how the field comes together, and what could still change it.
How NPI Picks the Field
Division II members voted at the January 2026 NCAA Convention to make NPI the sole metric for selecting team champions. Football is getting its first taste this fall.
The field is 32 teams, eight from each of four super regions. Conference champions take 15 automatic bids, and NPI hands out the other 17 in order until each region is full.
The old checklist is gone. In-region winning percentage, head-to-head results, and results against common opponents no longer count. Neither does the rule that a team had to finish .500 or better.
Here is how the Division II Football Committee set the formula:
- Winning percentage and strength of schedule: 25 percent and 75 percent
- Road wins and home losses: weighted at 1.05
- Home wins and road losses: weighted at 0.95
- Quality win bonus: applies to wins over opponents with an NPI above 52.00, with a 0.500 multiplier
- Minimum retained wins: 5.5
The headline is that schedule strength carries three times the weight of winning percentage. Who you beat matters far more than how often you win.
Only games against Division II opponents count. A game against a Division I team, win or lose, simply disappears from the math.
Overtime wins count the same as regulation wins. The retained wins rule protects good teams from easy wins: once a team has 5.5 wins in its calculation, it can drop a win over a weak opponent that would drag its NPI down.
The Gulf South Twist
The Gulf South Conference has three football members, short of the eight the NCAA requires for an automatic bid. The NCAA denied its request to extend a waiver.
That leaves Super Region Two with only three automatic bids (SIAC, SAC and Conference Carolinas) and five at-large spots. Delta State, Valdosta State, and West Alabama must earn their way in through NPI alone.
How the Bracket Gets Built
The top four teams in each region are seeded, and the first round is played on campus Nov. 21. Seeds No. 1 and No. 4 share the upper half of the bracket, while No. 2 and No. 3 share the lower half.
Teams five through eight are unseeded. The NCAA places them to reduce flights first, then to avoid rematches of regular-season games, and only then by where they would have been seeded.
One more rule matters this year. A conference champion that finishes outside its region’s top eight in NPI plays the No. 1 seed.
Super Region One: Slippery Rock Sets the Pace
Slippery Rock is the best team in Division II by the numbers. The Rock are 8-0 with an NPI of 68.145, No. 1 in the country, and they have already clinched the PSAC West.
The PSAC holds three of the region’s top four spots. The CIAA holds the next two, plus a third bid that was nowhere close a week ago.
| Rank | Team | Conference | DII record | NPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slippery Rock | PSAC | 8-0 | 68.145 |
| 2 | Kutztown | PSAC | 7-0 | 62.705 |
| 3 | East Stroudsburg | PSAC | 6-1 | 60.989 |
| 4 | Virginia State | CIAA | 7-0 | 58.371 |
| 5 | Virginia Union | CIAA | 7-1 | 57.690 |
| 6 | West Liberty | MEC | 7-1 | 56.366 |
| 7 | Bowie State | CIAA | 4-2 | 54.343 |
| 8 | Indiana (Pa.) | PSAC | 5-3 | 53.984 |
| 9 | Assumption | NE10 | 5-2 | 53.589 |
| 10 | Johnson C. Smith | CIAA | 6-2 | 53.380 |
The Assumption Wrinkle
On the rankings alone, Indiana (Pa.) holds the last spot. The automatic bids change that.
Assumption leads the NE10 at 4-0 in league play but sits ninth in the region. As the projected NE10 champion, the Greyhounds take a bid and push IUP out of the field.
That also means Assumption draws the No. 1 seed. Nobody wants that ticket this year.
Projected First Round
| Seed | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slippery Rock (8-0) | Assumption (5-2) |
| 4 | Virginia State (7-0) | West Liberty (7-1) |
| 2 | Kutztown (7-0) | Bowie State (4-2) |
| 3 | East Stroudsburg (6-1) | Virginia Union (7-1) |
Straight seed order would send Virginia State against Virginia Union. That fails the rematch test, since the two meet Nov. 7.
Bowie State is no help either. The Bulldogs already lost 42-13 to Virginia State and 48-7 to Virginia Union.
That leaves West Liberty as the only unseeded team Virginia State has not played. Every other pairing is a first meeting this season, and every trip is within driving distance.
In the second round, the Slippery Rock-Assumption winner would meet the Virginia State-West Liberty winner. The Kutztown and Bowie State winner would face the East Stroudsburg and Virginia Union winner.
Super Region Two: The SIAC Owns the Top
The SIAC has spent the season beating itself up, and NPI is rewarding it. Three SIAC teams sit at the top of the region, and a fourth is fifth.
Kentucky State leads at 7-1 with an NPI of 61.422, 10th in the nation. Its only Division II loss came at Edward Waters, 61-42, on Oct. 3.
Edward Waters is second at 5-1, and its lone Division II loss was a 45-24 defeat at Benedict. Benedict is third at 7-1.
| Rank | Team | Conference | DII record | NPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky State | SIAC | 7-1 | 61.422 |
| 2 | Edward Waters | SIAC | 5-1 | 60.860 |
| 3 | Benedict | SIAC | 7-1 | 60.251 |
| 4 | Carson-Newman | SAC | 6-1 | 59.760 |
| 5 | Central State | SIAC | 5-1 | 58.731 |
| 6 | North Greenville | Conference Carolinas | 7-1 | 58.041 |
| 7 | Mars Hill | SAC | 5-2 | 56.513 |
| 8 | Newberry | SAC | 4-2 | 54.462 |
| 9 | West Alabama | GSC | 5-2 | 54.405 |
| 10 | Tuskegee | SIAC | 4-3 | 53.394 |
Carson-Newman leads the SAC. In Conference Carolinas, North Greenville and UNC Pembroke share first at 4-1 in league play, with Chowan a game back at 3-1.
North Greenville beat the Braves 42-41 on Oct. 3 and leads the league in NPI. The title still runs through the Conference Carolinas Bowl on Nov. 14.
With Carson-Newman and North Greenville both inside the top eight, the field here is simply the top eight in NPI. A UNC Pembroke title would change that. The Braves are 12th in the region, so they would take a bid, draw the No. 1 seed, and knock Newberry out.
The SIAC bid is still undecided. It doesn’t matter for selection because all four SIAC contenders are in either way.
A Razor-Thin Cut Line
Newberry holds the last spot over West Alabama by 0.057 points. That is the whole margin between a playoff bid and a long winter.
West Alabama is the cautionary tale. The Tigers were 25th nationally a week ago and slid to 39th.
Without a Gulf South automatic bid, there is no safety net. West Alabama, Valdosta State and Delta State live and die by the formula.
Projected First Round
| Seed | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky State (7-1) | Newberry (4-2) |
| 4 | Carson-Newman (6-1) | Central State (5-1) |
| 2 | Edward Waters (5-1) | Mars Hill (5-2) |
| 3 | Benedict (7-1) | North Greenville (7-1) |
This one lands in straight seed order, and the rematch rules back it up. Central State opened the season with a 41-14 loss to Kentucky State, hosts Edward Waters on Oct. 31 and visits Benedict on Nov. 7.
Carson-Newman is the only seed the Marauders haven’t faced. The pairing also keeps Carson-Newman away from Mars Hill, which beat the Eagles 10-6, and from Newberry, which visits on Nov. 7.
Benedict and North Greenville would be meeting for the first time this season. So would Kentucky State and Newberry, and Edward Waters and Mars Hill.
If the seeds hold, Kentucky State and Carson-Newman would meet in the second round. Edward Waters and Benedict would set up an SIAC rematch on the other side.
The HBCU Picture
Seven HBCUs in a 16-team slice of the bracket is a strong showing for the CIAA and SIAC in NPI’s first year. Three SIAC teams topped Super Region 2 in Division II’s New NCAA Power Index; the first release looked at the CIAA and SIAC Division II football dashboard, which tracks every team’s NPI, schedule, and stats as the weeks roll on.
Bowie State and the Division II Only Rule
Bowie State best illustrates how the new math works. The Bulldogs are 4-4 overall, yet their NPI record is 4-2.
NPI only counts games against Division II opponents. Their losses to Delaware State and Alabama A&M came against Division I FCS teams, so they don’t count in the formula.
What does count is the 16-13 Homecoming upset of Johnson C. Smith, the centerpiece of the Week 8 Division II HBCU Football Recap. Bowie State was 16th in Super Region One going into that game and is now seventh, inside the field.
The Other Movers
Central State climbed from eighth to fifth in Super Region Two and would be the SIAC’s fourth bid. Johnson C. Smith went the other way, falling from eighth to 10th in Super Region One, two spots out.
What the Conference Races Mean
Virginia State and Virginia Union are both 6-0 in CIAA play and meet Nov. 7; either way, both are in the field.
The danger is a CIAA champion from outside the region’s top eight. If Johnson C. Smith or Fayetteville State won the title, that team could take a bid, and Bowie State could be squeezed out.
The SIAC works the same way. Kentucky State leads 6-1, with Benedict, Central State, and Edward Waters a game back at 5-1, and the conference title game is Nov. 14. As long as one of those four wins, the league keeps four bids.
What Could Change It
Three Saturdays of regular-season football remain, and NPI updates every week until the selection show on Nov. 15. These games will move this bracket the most.
- Oct. 31, Virginia State at Johnson C. Smith: Virginia State’s unbeaten CIAA run and Johnson C. Smith’s path back into the field
- Oct. 31, Bowie State at Fayetteville State: CIAA title game positioning and Bowie State’s hold on a bid
- Oct. 31, Kutztown at East Stroudsburg: First place in the PSAC East and Super Region One seeding
- Oct. 31, Franklin Pierce at Assumption: The NE10 lead and its automatic bid
- Oct. 31, Edward Waters at Central State: SIAC title game positioning and Super Region Two seeding
- Oct. 31, Valdosta State at West Alabama: The Gulf South’s top two NPI teams, with West Alabama sitting just 0.057 points out of the field
- Nov. 7, Virginia Union at Virginia State: The CIAA’s top spot and a Super Region One seed
- Nov. 7, Central State at Benedict: SIAC title game positioning
- Nov. 7, Newberry at Carson-Newman: Newberry’s grip on the last spot in Super Region Two
- Nov. 7, North Greenville at Valdosta State: Super Region Two seeding and Valdosta State’s at-large hopes
- Nov. 13 and 14, CIAA Championship Weekend in Durham, N.C.: The CIAA automatic bid
- Nov. 14, SIAC Championship: The SIAC automatic bid
- Nov. 14, PSAC Championship at Slippery Rock: The PSAC automatic bid
- Nov. 14, Conference Carolinas Bowl: The Conference Carolinas automatic bid
- Nov. 14, West Alabama at Northeastern State: A last chance at a quality win, against a Division II independent ranked 33rd nationally in NPI
The selection show airs Nov. 15 on NCAA.com, and the first round kicks off Nov. 21. The national championship is Dec. 19 in McKinney, Texas.
