A week ago, the road to Atlanta ran through Baltimore and Jackson. Now it runs through Orangeburg and Normal.
The Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota released its second Toyota Championship Projection on Oct. 28, and one weekend flipped both conference races. South Carolina State now leads the MEAC at 40.63%. Alabama A&M leads the SWAC at 49.10%. The two teams that sat atop the first projection, Morgan State and Jackson State, both lost Saturday and took the biggest falls on the board.
“Last weekend demonstrated why we introduced this projection,” said John T. Grant, Executive Director of the Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota. “A week ago, Morgan State and Jackson State held very different positions. Then Howard goes into Baltimore and upsets Morgan State in overtime, Bethune-Cookman defeats Jackson State in a thriller, South Carolina State wins, and suddenly the road to Atlanta looks different.”
The Celebration Bowl is set for Saturday, Dec. 12, at noon ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on ABC.
What Changed
The updated projection includes games through Oct. 24. It weighs each team’s current strength, schedule, FCS-only scoring efficiency, conference standings, remaining games, where those games are played, and the tiebreak rules. Then it plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times.
Six results did most of the moving: Howard 26, Morgan State 20 in overtime; South Carolina State 22, Norfolk State 7; North Carolina Central 31, Delaware State 12; Bethune-Cookman 24, Jackson State 21; Arkansas-Pine Bluff 31, Florida A&M 28; and Texas Southern 24, Southern 21. Prairie View A&M also boosted its profile with a 30-19 nonconference win over East Texas A&M.
The simulations carry a margin of error of plus or minus 0.8 percentage points at 95% confidence, so teams a few tenths apart are essentially even.
MEAC: South Carolina State Takes the Lead
| Rank | Team | MEAC | Odds | Last week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina State | 1-0 | 40.63% | 19.7% | +20.9 |
| 2 | Howard | 1-0 | 27.94% | 4.5% | +23.4 |
| 3 | Morgan State | 0-1 | 25.40% | 63.4% | -38.0 |
| 4 | North Carolina Central | 1-0 | 4.10% | 0.7% | +3.4 |
| 5 | Delaware State | 0-1 | 1.16% | 7.3% | -6.1 |
| 6 | Norfolk State | 0-1 | 0.77% | 4.5% | -3.7 |
Records are MEAC records. Last week’s odds are from the first projection. Change is in percentage points.
South Carolina State more than doubled its odds after beating Norfolk State, and it now reaches Atlanta in 40.63% of the simulations. The bigger story is the swap behind it. Howard jumped from 4.5% to 27.94% with one overtime win, the largest gain in the MEAC. Morgan State fell from 63.4% to 25.40%, a 38-point drop.
Those three teams account for nearly 94% of the projected MEAC champions. North Carolina Central is the only other team above 2% after its win in Dover. Delaware State and Norfolk State, both 0-1, are down to a combined 1.93%.
“The projection puts data behind those changes and gives everyone a better way to talk about what the results really mean,” Grant said. “It is not just about who won or lost. It is about how that result alters a team’s path, who controls its own destiny, who needs help and which games become even more important.”
SWAC East: Alabama A&M Opens Up a Lead
| Rank | Team | SWAC | East | East odds | Last week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama A&M | 3-1 | 2-1 | 60.42% | 36.6% | +23.8 |
| 2 | Bethune-Cookman | 3-1 | 3-1 | 27.16% | 9.3% | +17.9 |
| 3 | Jackson State | 3-2 | 2-1 | 10.53% | 49.5% | -39.0 |
| 4 | Alabama State | 2-2 | 1-2 | 1.70% | 4.2% | -2.5 |
| 5 | Mississippi Valley State | 2-2 | 0-2 | 0.19% | 0.4% | -0.2 |
| Florida A&M (ineligible) | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0.00% | 0.0% |
SWAC and division records are through Oct. 24. Last week’s odds are from the first projection. Change is in percentage points.
Alabama A&M didn’t play Saturday and still gained nearly 24 points. Bethune-Cookman’s upset knocked Jackson State down to 3-2 in SWAC play, and the Bulldogs now win the East in 60.42% of the simulations. Bethune-Cookman nearly tripled its odds, from 9.3% to 27.16%, and is tied with Alabama A&M at 3-1.
Jackson State took the biggest fall in the SWAC, from 49.5% to 10.53%. The Tigers still hold the head-to-head win over Alabama A&M, but they lost the one to Bethune-Cookman, and with two conference losses, they now need help. The Road to Dec. 5: Every Path to the SWAC Championship Game breaks down each contender’s remaining schedule.
SWAC West: Still Anybody’s Division
| Rank | Team | SWAC | West | West odds | Last week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grambling State | 2-2 | 1-1 | 36.69% | 41.6% | -4.9 |
| 2 | Prairie View A&M | 3-2 | 3-1 | 32.90% | 26.0% | +6.9 |
| 3 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 2-2 | 1-1 | 14.92% | 10.0% | +4.9 |
| 4 | Alcorn State | 2-2 | 2-2 | 12.61% | 10.1% | +2.5 |
| 5 | Southern | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2.71% | 12.3% | -9.6 |
| 6 | Texas Southern | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0.17% | 0.03% | +0.1 |
SWAC and division records are through Oct. 24. Last week’s odds are from the first projection. Change is in percentage points.
Grambling State slipped a little and still leads at 36.69%, with Prairie View A&M less than four points behind at 32.90%. The model keeps Grambling on top even though Prairie View has the better SWAC record and won the State Fair Classic.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Alcorn State both moved up and remain within striking distance. Southern went the other way. The Jaguars’ loss at Texas Southern dropped them from 12.3% to 2.71%, the biggest fall in the West.
The Full SWAC Road
These are the odds of winning the SWAC Championship Game on Dec. 5, which is the same as reaching the Celebration Bowl.
| Rank | Team | Division | SWAC title odds | Last week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama A&M | East | 49.10% | 29.9% | +19.2 |
| 2 | Bethune-Cookman | East | 17.86% | 6.0% | +11.9 |
| 3 | Grambling State | West | 9.57% | 10.2% | -0.6 |
| 4 | Prairie View A&M | West | 8.58% | 5.2% | +3.4 |
| 5 | Jackson State | East | 8.07% | 40.3% | -32.2 |
| 6 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | West | 2.95% | 1.7% | +1.3 |
| 7 | Alcorn State | West | 2.35% | 1.8% | +0.6 |
| 8 | Alabama State | East | 1.03% | 2.7% | -1.7 |
| 9 | Southern | West | 0.42% | 2.1% | -1.7 |
| 10 | Mississippi Valley State | East | 0.04% | 0.12% | -0.1 |
| 11 | Texas Southern | West | 0.03% | <0.01% | 0.0 |
| Florida A&M (ineligible) | East | 0.00% | 0.0% |
Alabama A&M reaches Atlanta in nearly half of the simulations, up from 29.9% a week ago. Bethune-Cookman is second at 17.86%. Behind them, Grambling State, Prairie View A&M and Jackson State are separated by 1.5 percentage points, and Jackson State’s odds are down 32 points from last week.
The East is still the stronger side of the bracket. East teams win the conference in about 76% of the simulations, down slightly from about 79% last week.
One more way to read the numbers is to compare how often a team wins its division with how often it wins the title game once it gets there.
| Team | Wins division | Wins SWAC | Title game win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama A&M | 60.42% | 49.10% | 81% |
| Bethune-Cookman | 27.16% | 17.86% | 66% |
| Jackson State | 10.53% | 8.07% | 77% |
| Grambling State | 36.69% | 9.57% | 26% |
| Prairie View A&M | 32.90% | 8.58% | 26% |
Title game win rate is SWAC title odds divided by division odds, rounded.
When Alabama A&M reaches the title game, it wins about 81% of the time. Once they get there, Grambling State and Prairie View A&M each win about 26% of the time. That gap is why the West leaders sit behind Bethune-Cookman in the full SWAC table even with better division odds.
How It Compares With Our Computer Poll
The projection and our Week 8 computer poll answer different questions. Our poll ranks how good teams are. The projection estimates who is most likely to finish first and depends on standings, tiebreakers, and the games left to play.
This week, the two are close. Our poll ranks South Carolina State No. 1 and Alabama A&M No. 2, and the projection has each leading its conference.
In the MEAC, the order is identical. Among the six MEAC teams, our poll ranks South Carolina State first, followed by Howard, Morgan State, North Carolina Central, Delaware State, and Norfolk State, matching the projection exactly.
In the SWAC East, the only difference is Jackson State and Bethune-Cookman. We have the Tigers third and the Wildcats fourth, while the projection puts Bethune-Cookman ahead. The Wildcats own the head-to-head win and the better conference record. In the West, we rank Prairie View A&M sixth and Grambling State eighth, the reverse of the projection’s top two.
The projection is a tool, not a guarantee, and we’ll update it again next week. Our Week 9 HBCU football preview on Thursday will break down the games most likely to move these numbers, starting with South Carolina State at Morgan State that night.
Follow every result and the full standings on the 2026 football season dashboard.
