The road to Atlanta now comes with weekly odds. The Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota released its first Toyota Championship Projection on Oct. 21. The new model estimates each MEAC and SWAC team’s chances of reaching this year’s game.
In the first edition, Morgan State is the clear MEAC favorite at 63.4%. In the SWAC, Jackson State leads the East Division at 49.5% and is the most likely conference champion at 40.3%, with Alabama A&M close behind.
The Celebration Bowl is set for Saturday, Dec. 12, at noon ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on ABC.
How the Model Works
The projection is meant to be more than a power ranking. For each team, it considers overall strength, quality of competition, scoring efficiency, conference standing, the remaining schedule, and where each game is played. It also folds in selected computer rankings.
From there, the model projects every remaining conference game from each team’s current strength. Then it plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Each simulation applies the conference standings and tiebreak procedures to decide who advances.
A team’s percentage is simply how often it reaches the Celebration Bowl across those 10,000 simulations. In the SWAC division tables below, the percentage is how often a team wins its division.
The tool is proprietary. The Celebration Bowl hasn’t said which computer rankings it includes or how much each factor counts.
The numbers will be updated each week. Wins, losses, head-to-head results, changes in team strength, remaining schedules, and new tiebreak situations can all move a team’s percentage.
“The conversations around who is playing the best football, who has the toughest road, and what the numbers are really telling us have been happening behind the scenes for years,” said John T. Grant, Executive Director of the Toyota Celebration Bowl.
“This projection model tool helps bring those conversations to the public. The tool gives fans, media, and the HBCU football community more context around the championship races, the teams’ paths, and how the numbers are changing from week to week. It does not replace what happens on the field, and it is not meant to tell us who will win. It is a tool to help us better understand the road to Atlanta and create more informed conversation around the Celebration Bowl.”
MEAC: Morgan State Is the Clear Favorite
The MEAC opens conference play this week, so all six teams start with a clean slate. The league schedule is five games, and the MEAC champion earns the Celebration Bowl berth.
| Rank | Team | Celebration Bowl odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morgan State | 63.4% |
| 2 | South Carolina State | 19.7% |
| 3 | Delaware State | 7.3% |
| T-4 | Howard | 4.5% |
| T-4 | Norfolk State | 4.5% |
| 6 | North Carolina Central | 0.7% |
Morgan State reaches Atlanta in nearly two-thirds of simulations. South Carolina State is the main challenger at 19.7%, and nobody else is above 7.3%.
Because the MEAC race is only five games long, these numbers can swing quickly. One head-to-head result between contenders can reshape the whole projection.
SWAC: Two Steps to Atlanta
The SWAC’s path has an extra step. A team has to win its division and then win the SWAC Championship Game on Dec. 5, so the projection includes odds for both. The division champion with the better record hosts the title game.
Florida A&M is included in every simulation because its games still affect other teams’ records and tiebreakers. The Rattlers are not eligible for the postseason, so they are listed at 0.0%.
SWAC East
| Rank | Team | Division odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson State | 49.5% |
| 2 | Alabama A&M | 36.6% |
| 3 | Bethune-Cookman | 9.3% |
| 4 | Alabama State | 4.2% |
| 5 | Mississippi Valley State | 0.4% |
| Florida A&M (ineligible) | 0.0% |
Jackson State has the edge in the East but is still just under 50%, which shows how open the division remains. Alabama A&M is close behind at 36.6%, and Bethune-Cookman is still a factor at 9.3%.
The Tigers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Alabama A&M after their 31-28 win in Mobile. The Road to Dec. 5: Every Path to the SWAC Championship Game breaks down each contender’s remaining schedule and what it needs.
SWAC West
| Rank | Team | Division odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grambling State | 41.6% |
| 2 | Prairie View A&M | 26.0% |
| 3 | Southern | 12.3% |
| 4 | Alcorn State | 10.1% |
| 5 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 10.0% |
| 6 | Texas Southern | 0.03% |
The West is the wider-open division. Grambling State leads at 41.6%, and Prairie View A&M is firmly in the race at 26.0%. Behind them, Southern, Alcorn State, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff are separated by only 2.3 percentage points.
The model has Grambling on top even though Prairie View has the better SWAC record (3-2 to 2-2) and beat the Tigers in the State Fair Classic. That reminds us the projection looks past the standings to team strength and the remaining schedule.
SWAC Championship
These are the odds of winning the SWAC title, which is the same as reaching the Celebration Bowl.
| Rank | Team | Division | SWAC title odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson State | East | 40.3% |
| 2 | Alabama A&M | East | 29.9% |
| 3 | Grambling State | West | 10.2% |
| 4 | Bethune-Cookman | East | 6.0% |
| 5 | Prairie View A&M | West | 5.2% |
| 6 | Alabama State | East | 2.7% |
| 7 | Southern | West | 2.1% |
| 8 | Alcorn State | West | 1.8% |
| 9 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | West | 1.7% |
| 10 | Mississippi Valley State | East | 0.12% |
| 11 | Texas Southern | West | <0.01% |
| Florida A&M (ineligible) | East | 0.0% |
Jackson State and Alabama A&M combine for 70.2% of the projected SWAC titles. Add in the rest of the division, and an East team wins the conference in about 79% of the simulations.
Grambling State is the strongest West contender at 10.2%. The six West teams combine for about 21%.
How It Compares With Our Computer Poll
The projection and our Week 7 computer poll answer different questions. Our poll ranks how good teams are. The projection estimates who is most likely to finish first, which also depends on standings, tiebreakers, and the games left to play.
That difference shows up at the top of the SWAC. Our poll ranks Alabama A&M No. 1 and Jackson State No. 2. The projection puts Jackson State ahead in both the East and the title race, and the Tigers hold the head-to-head result.
In the West, the two agree on the top order. Grambling State is No. 11 in our poll, and Prairie View A&M is No. 14 among the 21 Division I HBCUs we rank.
In the MEAC, both have Morgan State first and South Carolina State second. They split after that. Our poll ranks Norfolk State fifth, Howard seventh, and Delaware State ninth, while the projection puts Delaware State third and ties Howard and Norfolk State behind it.
Follow every result and the full standings on the 2026 football season dashboard.
