Two weeks ago, Morgan State reached Atlanta in nearly two-thirds of simulations. Last week, the Bears were down to 25.15%. Now they are at 0.02%.
That is how quickly the road to the Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota can turn. The latest Toyota Championship Projection, released Wednesday and running through Week 9, has two Bulldog programs firmly in front.
South Carolina State is at 75.97% to win the MEAC. Alabama A&M is at 64.02% to win the SWAC. Put those two together, and South Carolina State vs. Alabama A&M is the most likely Celebration Bowl matchup at 48.79%, just short of a coin flip.
Behind them, the SWAC West got flipped upside down. Arkansas-Pine Bluff jumped from fourth to first in the division, and Grambling State, which led the West in the first edition and again last week, fell to fourth.
MEAC: South Carolina State Takes Control
| Team | Oct. 24 | Oct. 31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina State | 39.94% | 75.97% | +36.03 |
| North Carolina Central | 4.29% | 20.41% | +16.12 |
| Howard | 28.65% | 2.48% | -26.17 |
| Delaware State | 0.87% | 1.11% | +0.24 |
| Morgan State | 25.15% | 0.02% | -25.13 |
| Norfolk State | 1.09% | 0.01% | -1.08 |
South Carolina State’s 36.03-point jump was the biggest move of any team in either conference. The Bulldogs nearly doubled their chances in a single week, going from 39.94% to 75.97%.
North Carolina Central made the other big climb, from 4.29% to 20.41%. The Eagles were last in the MEAC at 0.7% in the first edition. They are now the only team within real reach of South Carolina State.
The MEAC race has essentially narrowed to two teams. South Carolina State and NCCU now account for 96.38% of the projected titles.
A week ago, Howard and Morgan State combined for 53.80%. Together, they are now at 2.50%. Howard fell 26.17 points to 2.48%, and Morgan State dropped 25.13 points.
SWAC East: Alabama A&M Pulls Away
| Team | Oct. 24 | Oct. 31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama A&M | 61.33% | 80.19% | +18.86 |
| Jackson State | 10.53% | 15.11% | +4.58 |
| Bethune-Cookman | 26.29% | 4.58% | -21.71 |
| Mississippi Valley State | 0.20% | 0.09% | -0.11 |
| Alabama State | 1.65% | 0.03% | -1.62 |
| Florida A&M (ineligible) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
Alabama A&M now wins the East in about four out of every five simulations. Its 18.86-point gain was the third largest of the week, behind only South Carolina State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Jackson State led the East at 49.5% in the first edition. The Tigers are now the closest challenger at 15.11%, up 4.58 points from last week.
Bethune-Cookman went the other direction. The Wildcats were second in the division a week ago at 26.29% and are now at 4.58%.
SWAC West: Arkansas-Pine Bluff Takes Over
| Team | Oct. 24 | Oct. 31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 14.92% | 36.28% | +21.36 |
| Alcorn State | 13.20% | 29.93% | +16.73 |
| Prairie View A&M | 32.93% | 22.79% | -10.14 |
| Grambling State | 36.10% | 6.37% | -29.73 |
| Southern | 2.68% | 3.57% | +0.89 |
| Texas Southern | 0.17% | 1.05% | +0.88 |
The West had the biggest shakeup of the week. Arkansas-Pine Bluff more than doubled its chances, going from 14.92% to 36.28%. The Golden Lions were fifth in the division at 10.0% in the first edition.
Alcorn State made a similar climb, up 16.73 points to 29.93%, and moved into second.
Grambling State took the hardest fall of any team this week. The Tigers dropped 29.73 points, from first at 36.10% to fourth at 6.37%. Prairie View A&M also slipped, from second to third.
The West is still the most open race on the board. It is the only division or conference where the leader is under 50%, and three teams sit between 22.79% and 36.28%.
SWAC Championship: Alabama A&M Is the Clear Favorite
| Team | Division | Oct. 24 | Oct. 31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama A&M | East | 49.82% | 64.02% | +14.20 |
| Jackson State | East | 8.01% | 11.05% | +3.04 |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | West | 3.09% | 10.22% | +7.13 |
| Prairie View A&M | West | 8.79% | 5.53% | -3.26 |
| Alcorn State | West | 2.34% | 5.33% | +2.99 |
| Bethune-Cookman | East | 17.32% | 2.02% | -15.30 |
| Grambling State | West | 9.07% | 1.11% | -7.96 |
| Southern | West | 0.49% | 0.54% | +0.05 |
| Texas Southern | West | 0.01% | 0.15% | +0.14 |
| Mississippi Valley State | East | 0.06% | 0.01% | -0.05 |
| Alabama State | East | 0.99% | 0.01% | -0.98 |
| Florida A&M (ineligible) | East | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
Alabama A&M is the only SWAC team above 11.05%. In the simulations where the Bulldogs win the East, they go on to win the SWAC Championship Game about 80% of the time.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is now the top West contender at 10.22%, up 7.13 points. Bethune-Cookman had the steepest drop, falling 15.30 points to 2.02%.
Across the West, the balance between the divisions barely changed. East teams win the SWAC in 77.11% of simulations, up from 76.20% a week ago. The six West teams combine for 22.88%.
One wrinkle: Alcorn State has better odds than Prairie View A&M to win the West, but Prairie View is slightly ahead in the title race, 5.53% to 5.33%. That gap is small enough to call even, which is where the margin of error comes in.
Reading the Numbers
This week’s edition is based on more than 10,000 simulated finishes to the season, and it comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 0.8 percentage points at 95% confidence.
That covers only the simulation process. Teams separated by a few tenths of a point, like Prairie View and Alcorn in the title race, should be viewed as essentially even. The margin does not account for injuries, turnovers, weather, player availability, or coaching decisions.
The first edition of the projection takes a deeper look at how the model works and how it compares with our computer poll.
Starting and Finishing in Atlanta
Alabama A&M opened its season in Atlanta at the Cricket MEAC/SWAC Challenge. John Grant, executive director of the Cricket Celebration Bowl, pointed to the Bulldogs’ chance to close it there too.
“What stands out in this week’s projections is how much the championship picture continues to change,” Grant said.
“Alabama A&M also has a chance to do something special by starting and potentially finishing its season on our Atlanta stage,” he added.
Every projected leader is on the road this weekend: South Carolina State at Howard on Thursday, then Alabama A&M at Prairie View A&M and Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Grambling State on Saturday. Our full weekend preview goes up Thursday.
Follow every result and the full standings on the 2026 football season dashboard.
