Week 6 shook up the HBCU football landscape. Jackson State, the last unbeaten HBCU in the FCS, fell 45-38 at Grambling State, and Morgan State moved to 5-1 with a last-minute Homecoming win over Robert Morris. Yet when the Data Driven HBCU Computer Poll was updated, Jackson State was still No. 1, and Morgan State was No. 2.
That’s fair to question, so we put our rankings to the test. We compared them with the Massey Composite, which combines 22 independently built computer rating systems into a single national ranking of all 128 FCS programs. None of those 22 systems use human voters. Each one is its own formula, including well-known names like Sagarin, Massey, Wilson, and the Laz Index.
The short version: our poll and the national field agree far more than they disagree. Where they split, the reasons are specific, and the biggest one is the debate everyone is already having about Jackson State’s schedule.
How Our Poll Works
Our poll uses only 2026 results. Last season no longer counts, so every team earns its spot based on what it does this fall.
The biggest factor is simple: winning. A team’s record makes up a little more than a third of its score. Next is strength of schedule, which measures how good a team’s opponents have been, and it counts for a little more than a fifth. Dominance, which looks at how much a team wins or loses by in points and yards, counts for a fifth, and that margin gets more credit against a better opponent. Results against the other HBCUs we track make up most of the rest, with a small slice for raw point and yardage margins.
The model also adds a bonus for wins and takes points away for certain kinds of losses: blowouts, double-digit losses, losses to teams below the FCS level, and losing records. Those flat penalties are a big reason our poll sometimes differs from the national computers, as you will see below.
We also changed one thing in the formula this week. Part of every team’s schedule score comes from rating how good each opponent is. For the HBCUs we track, that rating has always included the team’s actual record. For everyone else, including FBS, other FCS and Division II opponents, it came only from that team’s national power rating. Now those opponents’ records count too, at one quarter of their rating. The change did not move a single team in this week’s rankings, but it will matter more in weeks when a team’s record and its power rating tell different stories.
Our Rankings Next to the National Field
The Massey Composite ranks all 128 FCS teams, so for a fair comparison, we pulled out the 21 Division I HBCU programs and ranked them 1 through 21. The table below shows where each school ranks in our poll and in that national composite.
The last column shows the gap. A plus means our poll ranks the team higher than the national composite does. A minus means we rank it lower. A zero means both systems have the team in the same spot. The three biggest gaps are highlighted.
| School | Our poll | National composite | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson State | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| Morgan State | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Alabama A&M | 3 | 4 | +1 |
| South Carolina State | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| Grambling State | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Norfolk State | 6 | 8 | +2 |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Alcorn State | 8 | 12 | +4 |
| Alabama State | 9 | 10 | +1 |
| Howard | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| Delaware State | 11 | 6 | -5 |
| Bethune-Cookman | 12 | 13 | +1 |
| Florida A&M | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| North Carolina A&T | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| North Carolina Central | 15 | 18 | +3 |
| Prairie View A&M | 16 | 11 | -5 |
| Southern | 17 | 16 | -1 |
| Tennessee State | 18 | 15 | -3 |
| Texas Southern | 19 | 19 | 0 |
| Mississippi Valley State | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| Hampton | 21 | 21 | 0 |
The two lists line up closely. The top five teams are the same in both, just shuffled slightly, and the bottom three are identical. Six schools land in exactly the same spot, and most of the rest are within one or two places. Every team’s record is identical in both sources, so the gaps come from how each system values results, not from different data.
Where we differ
Two teams stand out, and in both cases the national computers like them more than we do. Delaware State is 11th in our poll but 6th nationally, and Prairie View A&M is 16th in our poll but 11th nationally.
For Delaware State, it comes down to margins and one bad loss. The Hornets have been outscored and outgained all season, and their 28-3 loss at UAlbany triggers our blowout penalty. National computers judge every game on a sliding scale and don’t add a separate penalty for a lopsided loss, so they don’t mark the Hornets down for that game the way we do.
Prairie View A&M is taking several of those penalties at once. Its 31-10 loss to Stephen F. Austin counts as a blowout, its losses to Tarleton State and Southern count as double-digit losses, and at 2-5 it also takes the losing-record penalty. The Panthers have played a legitimately tough schedule, including a trip to FBS Baylor, and the national computers give them full credit. Two of the losses that trigger those penalties came against Tarleton State and Stephen F. Austin, which are No. 2 and No. 3 in this week’s Stats Perform FCS Top 25. Our penalties pull them down further.
Alcorn State is the one notable case running the other direction. We have the Braves at No. 8, four spots higher than the national composite’s No. 12.
Why Jackson State Is Still No. 1
Start with the knock on Jackson State, because it is true. Its strength of schedule is the second weakest of the 21 HBCUs we track. Two of its wins came against Division II SIAC teams, Edward Waters and Tuskegee, and it has not played an FBS opponent. Anyone pointing to those facts as evidence of a soft schedule is right, and our model agrees. Schedule is by far Jackson State’s weakest category, and it adds almost nothing to the Tigers’ score.
What carries Jackson State is how convincingly it has won. It ranks near the top of the field in both dominance and raw margins. It also has no penalties of any kind, because its one loss, at Grambling State, came by seven points with Grambling outgaining the Tigers by just eight yards.
Morgan State is the opposite. Its schedule rates much tougher than Jackson State’s, but its margins are much thinner. Several of the Bears’ wins came while they were outgained, including wins over North Carolina A&T, Towson, and Robert Morris. Our model treats a win where you are outgained as less convincing, no matter the final score.
The FCS-only test
Both sides of the debate point to games that do not fit. Jackson State’s critics point to its two Division II opponents. Morgan State’s critics could point to its game at FBS Arizona State and its game against Virginia University of Lynchburg, which is not an NCAA member. So we set all of those aside and compared the two teams using only their games against FCS opponents.
In the table below, point margin is the average point differential, and yardage margin is the average difference in total yards gained. A minus means the opponent had more.
| Jackson State | Morgan State | |
|---|---|---|
| Record vs. FCS teams | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| FCS opponents | Tennessee State, Southern, Alabama A&M, Grambling State | North Carolina A&T, Towson, Villanova, Robert Morris |
| Average point margin | +4.0 | +7.3 |
| Average yardage margin | +31.3 | -28.3 |
Morgan State is unbeaten against FCS teams and wins by larger margins. Jackson State has outgained its FCS opponents by about 31 yards a game, while Morgan State has been outgained by about 28 yards a game despite winning all four. The Bears lost the yardage battle in three of those four wins.
The quality of those opponents is close to even. Once we remove the mismatches from both schedules, Jackson State’s FCS opponents rate slightly higher than Morgan State’s in our model, and both teams’ FCS schedules fall in the middle of the 21-team field. Neither one is especially tough or especially weak.
What about conference strength?
Some fans argue Morgan State’s schedule is stronger because of the CAA’s reputation, and that Jackson State’s slate is weak because it has no FBS opponent and two Division II teams.
The second point is accurate, and our numbers reflect it. The first is harder to support this season. Two of Morgan State’s three CAA opponents are struggling, with Towson at 0-7 and North Carolina A&T at 2-5. Villanova carries real name value but ranks 200th of 266 teams nationally in the Massey ratings this year. The only Power 4 opponent on either schedule, Arizona State, beat Morgan State by 63 points. Conference history and brand are legitimate things for fans to value, but they are not what any of these computer systems measure. Ours and the other 22 all score this season’s results.
There is also a wrinkle in the Division II critique. Edward Waters, which Jackson State beat 66-14, is No. 1 in this week’s Black College Football Poll for Division II HBCUs, with a 5-1 record and 8 of the 18 first-place votes. In other words, Jackson State won one of its two Division II games by 52 points against the team the panel considers the best Division II HBCU program in the country. Tuskegee, Jackson State’s other Division II opponent, is unranked and not receiving votes in that poll.
Black College Football Poll Division II – Week 6 https://t.co/bYwRUN18dD
— Inside the HBCU Sports Lab (@HBCUSportsLab1) October 12, 2026
Who Gets the First Place Votes?
Another way to compare is to treat each system’s top HBCU as a first-place vote. Counting the 22 national systems plus our own poll gives 23 computer votes. We lined those up with this week’s Black College Football Poll, where 28 voters rank the Division I HBCUs.
Black College Football Poll FCS Division I – Week 6 https://t.co/7Ep8CmgUZ0
— Inside the HBCU Sports Lab (@HBCUSportsLab1) October 12, 2026
Morgan State is the top choice in both. The Bears are No. 1 in 9 of the 23 computer systems, and they took 20 of the 28 first-place votes in the Black College Football Poll, jumping from third to first. Among the computers, South Carolina State is next with 6 first-place votes, followed by Jackson State and Alabama A&M with 4 each. Among the human voters, South Carolina State received 4 first-place votes, Jackson State received 3, and Grambling State received 1.
The human voters and our poll also agree on more than just the first-place votes. Both have the same five teams at the top: Morgan State, Jackson State, Alabama A&M, Grambling State and South Carolina State. The Black College Football Poll has Morgan State first and Jackson State second, and we have them the other way around.
Further down, the voters line up more with the national computers than with us on one team. They have Delaware State sixth, the same spot the national composite gives the Hornets, while we have them 11th.
The national media poll tells a similar story. Morgan State entered this week’s Stats Perform FCS Top 25 at No. 24 and is the only HBCU in it. Jackson State and South Carolina State both dropped out after their losses, though both still received votes: Jackson State with 39 points and South Carolina State with 24. Grambling State received 8 points.
The Bottom Line
Our No. 1 pick is not a lone outlier. Three other independently built systems, Laz Index, Pugh, and Sagarin, also have Jackson State as the top HBCU. It is still a minority view, though. Morgan State is the most common No. 1 among both the national computers and the Black College Football Poll voters, by more than two to one over Jackson State among the computers and by more than six to one among the voters.
Jackson State’s case for No. 1 rests on how dominantly it has won, not on who it has played. Strength of schedule is its weakest category, and that is exactly where our model and the broader field part ways most often. Fans who point to Jackson State’s soft nonconference slate are pointing to something our model agrees with. In our formula, it is simply outweighed by how convincingly the Tigers have won the games they have played.
See the full rankings and every team’s results on the 2026 football season dashboard, and Inside the Numbers takes a deeper look at how strength of schedule is calculated.
